Abstract
There are more than 300 avian species that can transmit West Nile virus (WNv). In general, the corvid and non-corvid families of birds have different responses to the virus, with corvids suffering a higher disease-induced mortality rate. By taking both corvids and non-corvids as the primary reservoir hosts and mosquitoes as vectors; we formulate and study a system of ordinary differential equations to model a single season of the transmission dynamics of WNv in the mosquito-bird cycle. We calculate the basic reproduction number and analyze the existence and stability of the equilibria. The existence of a backward bifurcation gives a further sub-threshold condition beyond the basic reproduction number for the spread of the virus. We also discuss the role of corvids and non-corvids in spreading the virus. We conclude that knowledge of the relative abundance of corvid bird species and other mammals assist us in accurate estimation of the epidemic of WNv.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 1553-1582 |
| Number of pages | 30 |
| Journal | Journal of Mathematical Biology |
| Volume | 68 |
| Issue number | 6 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - May 2014 |
| Externally published | Yes |
Bibliographical note
Funding Information:Lenhart’s work was partially supported by the National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis through the National Science Foundation award # EF-0832858.
Funding Information:
H. Zhu’s work was supported by ERA, an Early Researcher Award of Ontario, the Pilot Infectious Disease Impact and Response Systems Program of Public Health Agency of Canada and Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada.
Keywords
- Backward bifurcation
- Corvid and non-corvid birds
- Equilibrium and stability
- Modeling
- Mosquito
- Spread and control
- Transmission dynamics
- West Nile virus
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Modeling and Simulation
- Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous)
- Applied Mathematics