The Role of Energy Efficiency in Shaping Saudi Arabia’s Sustainable Energy Future: Evidence from LEAP Modelling

Electricity demand in Saudi Arabia is rising with population and income growth, yet the pace at which it rises depends strongly on demand-side choices. We developed a Saudi Electricity Company (SEC) service-area model using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP). The model projected electricity demand, generation, system costs, and CO₂ emissions under four pathways to 2040: a Reference Scenario (RS), a High Growth Scenario (HGS), and two efficiency-oriented pathways: the Demand Management and Energy Efficiency Based Reference Scenario (DMEERS) and the Demand Management and Energy Efficiency Based High Growth Scenario (DMEEHGS). The model is calibrated to SEC statistics for 2018–2022 and retains Marafiq loads outside the scope. In 2040, demand reaches 480.6 TWh (RS) and 607.8 TWh (HGS); efficiency policies hold this to 432.5 TWh (DMEERS) and 547.0 TWh (DMEEHGS). These reductions lower generation needs and system costs. Environmental emissions fall by 8–15% compared with the baselines. The residential sector continues to use the most electricity. This emphasises how crucial it is to upgrade building insulation and appliances. Equal amounts of thermal and renewable energy are planned for Vision 2030. Our findings demonstrate that by postponing new thermal capacity and facilitating the integration of renewable energy sources, demand-side strategies can supplement supply expansion.