Systematic ensemble model selection approach for educational data mining

A plethora of research has been done in the past focusing on predicting student's performance in order to support their development. Many institutions are focused on improving the performance and the education quality; and this can be achieved by utilizing data mining techniques to analyze and predict students’ performance and to determine possible factors that may affect their final marks. To address this issue, this work starts by thoroughly exploring and analyzing two different datasets at two separate stages of course delivery (20% and 50% respectively) using multiple graphical, statistical, and quantitative techniques. The feature analysis provides insights into the nature of the different features considered and helps in the choice of the machine learning algorithms and their parameters. Furthermore, this work proposes a systematic approach based on Gini index and p-value to select a suitable ensemble learner from a combination of six potential machine learning algorithms. Experimental results show that the proposed ensemble models achieve high accuracy and low false positive rate at all stages for both datasets.