Strategic decision-making in nuclear fuel cycle economics: Insights from capital and operating cost analysis

This study evaluates the investment and operating costs of conversion, enrichment, fuel fabrication, and reprocessing facilities for nuclear fuel production, together with the unit costs of these processes, through scenario analysis. For 2025, updated graphs and formulas were developed to calculate investment and operating costs separately. In the cost model, the scaling factors for investment were determined as 0.65 for conversion, 0.73 for enrichment, 0.51 for fuel fabrication, and 0.74 for reprocessing, while those for operating costs were 0.38, 0.48, 0.69, and 0.57, respectively. Four scenarios were designed for Türkiye, based on installed capacities of 5, 10, 15, and 20 GWe, and were tested through literature consistency checks, sensitivity analysis, and Monte Carlo simulations. Results show that unit costs are highest in the 5 GWe scenario, close to the mean in the 15 GWe scenario, and below the mean in the 20 GWe case, making larger facilities financially more viable. Sensitivity analysis reveals that with a ± 10% variation in parameters, cost increases may reach 24% for conversion, 20% for enrichment, 7% for fuel fabrication, and 9% for reprocessing. Simulations further reveal that conversion and enrichment display wider cost distributions and greater uncertainties, while fuel fabrication and reprocessing show narrower distributions. Overall, it is concluded that small facilities involve higher financial risks due to elevated unit costs and broader uncertainty ranges. However, it is also noted that realizing the economies of scale in larger facilities requires managing significantly higher upfront capital investments. This techno-economic evaluation provides a realistic framework for national policies and investment planning. It is intended as a reference study to guide other countries in shaping their nuclear fuel cycle strategies.