Spatio-temporal scanning and statistical test of the accelerating moment release (AMR) model using Australian earthquake data

Yucang Wang; Can Yin; Peter Mora; Xiang Chu Yin; Keyin Peng

doi:10.1007/s00024-004-2563-9

Spatio-temporal scanning and statistical test of the accelerating moment release (AMR) model using Australian earthquake data

Yucang Wang^*, Can Yin, Peter Mora, Xiang Chu Yin, Keyin Peng

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

14 Scopus citations

Abstract

The Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) preceding earthquakes with magnitude above 5 in Australia that occurred during the last 20 years was analyzed to test the Critical Point Hypothesis. Twelve earthquakes in the catalog were chosen based on a criterion for the number of nearby events. Results show that seven sequences with numerous events recorded leading up to the main earthquake exhibited accelerating moment release. Two occurred near in time and space to other earthquakes preceded by AMR. The remaining three sequences had very few events in the catalog so the lack of AMR detected in the analysis may be related to catalog incompleteness. Spatio-temporal scanning of AMR parameters shows that 80% of the areas in which AMR occurred experienced large events. In areas of similar background seismicity with no large events, 10 out of 12 cases exhibit no AMR, and two others are false alarms where AMR was observed but no large event followed. The relationship between AMR and Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) was studied. Both methods predict similar critical region sizes, however, the critical point time using AMR is slightly earlier than the time of the critical point LURR anomaly.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	2281-2293
Number of pages	13
Journal	Pure and Applied Geophysics
Volume	161
Issue number	11-12
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-004-2563-9
State	Published - Dec 2004
Externally published	Yes

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This study is supported by the Australia-China special Fund for Scientific and Technological Cooperation, Chinese NSF Fund for International Exchange and Cooperation and Chinese NSF (Grant num. 40004002). We are also grateful to Dr. Cvetan Sinadinovski of Geoscience Australia (formerly known as Australian Geological Survey Organization – AGSO) for providing the Australia catalog. The GMT Software (WESSEL and SMITH, 1995) was used in this study. The authors are grateful for Dr. David Bowman ‘s valuable suggestions enhancing the manuscript.

Keywords

Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) model
Australia earthquakes
Critical Point Hypothesis
Earthquake prediction
Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR)

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Geophysics
Geochemistry and Petrology

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1007/s00024-004-2563-9

Cite this

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title = "Spatio-temporal scanning and statistical test of the accelerating moment release (AMR) model using Australian earthquake data",

abstract = "The Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) preceding earthquakes with magnitude above 5 in Australia that occurred during the last 20 years was analyzed to test the Critical Point Hypothesis. Twelve earthquakes in the catalog were chosen based on a criterion for the number of nearby events. Results show that seven sequences with numerous events recorded leading up to the main earthquake exhibited accelerating moment release. Two occurred near in time and space to other earthquakes preceded by AMR. The remaining three sequences had very few events in the catalog so the lack of AMR detected in the analysis may be related to catalog incompleteness. Spatio-temporal scanning of AMR parameters shows that 80\% of the areas in which AMR occurred experienced large events. In areas of similar background seismicity with no large events, 10 out of 12 cases exhibit no AMR, and two others are false alarms where AMR was observed but no large event followed. The relationship between AMR and Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) was studied. Both methods predict similar critical region sizes, however, the critical point time using AMR is slightly earlier than the time of the critical point LURR anomaly.",

keywords = "Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) model, Australia earthquakes, Critical Point Hypothesis, Earthquake prediction, Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR)",

author = "Yucang Wang and Can Yin and Peter Mora and Yin, \{Xiang Chu\} and Keyin Peng",

note = "Funding Information: This study is supported by the Australia-China special Fund for Scientific and Technological Cooperation, Chinese NSF Fund for International Exchange and Cooperation and Chinese NSF (Grant num. 40004002). We are also grateful to Dr. Cvetan Sinadinovski of Geoscience Australia (formerly known as Australian Geological Survey Organization – AGSO) for providing the Australia catalog. The GMT Software (WESSEL and SMITH, 1995) was used in this study. The authors are grateful for Dr. David Bowman {\textquoteleft}s valuable suggestions enhancing the manuscript.",

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doi = "10.1007/s00024-004-2563-9",

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volume = "161",

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AU - Mora, Peter

AU - Yin, Xiang Chu

AU - Peng, Keyin

N1 - Funding Information: This study is supported by the Australia-China special Fund for Scientific and Technological Cooperation, Chinese NSF Fund for International Exchange and Cooperation and Chinese NSF (Grant num. 40004002). We are also grateful to Dr. Cvetan Sinadinovski of Geoscience Australia (formerly known as Australian Geological Survey Organization – AGSO) for providing the Australia catalog. The GMT Software (WESSEL and SMITH, 1995) was used in this study. The authors are grateful for Dr. David Bowman ‘s valuable suggestions enhancing the manuscript.

PY - 2004/12

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N2 - The Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) preceding earthquakes with magnitude above 5 in Australia that occurred during the last 20 years was analyzed to test the Critical Point Hypothesis. Twelve earthquakes in the catalog were chosen based on a criterion for the number of nearby events. Results show that seven sequences with numerous events recorded leading up to the main earthquake exhibited accelerating moment release. Two occurred near in time and space to other earthquakes preceded by AMR. The remaining three sequences had very few events in the catalog so the lack of AMR detected in the analysis may be related to catalog incompleteness. Spatio-temporal scanning of AMR parameters shows that 80% of the areas in which AMR occurred experienced large events. In areas of similar background seismicity with no large events, 10 out of 12 cases exhibit no AMR, and two others are false alarms where AMR was observed but no large event followed. The relationship between AMR and Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) was studied. Both methods predict similar critical region sizes, however, the critical point time using AMR is slightly earlier than the time of the critical point LURR anomaly.

AB - The Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) preceding earthquakes with magnitude above 5 in Australia that occurred during the last 20 years was analyzed to test the Critical Point Hypothesis. Twelve earthquakes in the catalog were chosen based on a criterion for the number of nearby events. Results show that seven sequences with numerous events recorded leading up to the main earthquake exhibited accelerating moment release. Two occurred near in time and space to other earthquakes preceded by AMR. The remaining three sequences had very few events in the catalog so the lack of AMR detected in the analysis may be related to catalog incompleteness. Spatio-temporal scanning of AMR parameters shows that 80% of the areas in which AMR occurred experienced large events. In areas of similar background seismicity with no large events, 10 out of 12 cases exhibit no AMR, and two others are false alarms where AMR was observed but no large event followed. The relationship between AMR and Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) was studied. Both methods predict similar critical region sizes, however, the critical point time using AMR is slightly earlier than the time of the critical point LURR anomaly.

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KW - Earthquake prediction

KW - Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR)

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IS - 11-12

ER -

Spatio-temporal scanning and statistical test of the accelerating moment release (AMR) model using Australian earthquake data

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

UN SDGs

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