Spatio-temporal Investigations of Monsoon Precipitation and Its Historical and Future Trend over Sudan

Monzer Hamadalnel; Zhiwei Zhu; Rui Lu; Shamsuddin Shahid; Md Arfan Ali; Ismail Abdalla; Mohammad Elkanzi; Muhammad Bilal; Max P. Bleiweiss

doi:10.1007/s41748-021-00236-3

Spatio-temporal Investigations of Monsoon Precipitation and Its Historical and Future Trend over Sudan

Monzer Hamadalnel, Zhiwei Zhu, Rui Lu, Shamsuddin Shahid, Md Arfan Ali^*, Ismail Abdalla, Mohammad Elkanzi, Muhammad Bilal, Max P. Bleiweiss

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

10 Scopus citations

Abstract

Understanding the ongoing and possible future changes in monsoon rainfall is vital for the sustainable planning and development of Sudanese agriculture. This study uses monthly rainfall recorded at 22 locations for the period 1960–2019 and future projections based on an ensemble of 3 global climate models (GCMs) for the period 2030–2089 to assess historical and future trends of rainfall in Sudan. Sen's slope estimator and Mann–Kendall (MK) test were used to estimate trends and their significance, respectively. The temporal coverage was divided equally into 30-year slices: periods A (1960–1989), B (1990–2019), then both combined into period C (1960–2019) for historical times, and periods D (2030–2059), E (2060–2089), and F (2030–2089) for the future. The future precipitation projection was evaluated from two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). The results showed a countrywide decreasing trend in period A and an increasing trend in period B. The increasing trend in period B led to an overall positive trend for period C, except at a few stations. The future trend under SSP2-4.5 revealed a possible continuation of the cyclic pattern of the historical period. In contrast, SSP5-8.5 revealed a dominant increasing trend in rainfall for the period 2030–2089.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	519-529
Number of pages	11
Journal	Earth Systems and Environment
Volume	5
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-021-00236-3
State	Published - Sep 2021
Externally published	Yes

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, King Abdulaziz University and Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

Keywords

Climate change scenarios
Precipitation trends
Sudan
Summer monsoon precipitation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Global and Planetary Change
Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
Geology
Economic Geology
Computers in Earth Sciences

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1007/s41748-021-00236-3

Cite this

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title = "Spatio-temporal Investigations of Monsoon Precipitation and Its Historical and Future Trend over Sudan",

abstract = "Understanding the ongoing and possible future changes in monsoon rainfall is vital for the sustainable planning and development of Sudanese agriculture. This study uses monthly rainfall recorded at 22 locations for the period 1960–2019 and future projections based on an ensemble of 3 global climate models (GCMs) for the period 2030–2089 to assess historical and future trends of rainfall in Sudan. Sen's slope estimator and Mann–Kendall (MK) test were used to estimate trends and their significance, respectively. The temporal coverage was divided equally into 30-year slices: periods A (1960–1989), B (1990–2019), then both combined into period C (1960–2019) for historical times, and periods D (2030–2059), E (2060–2089), and F (2030–2089) for the future. The future precipitation projection was evaluated from two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). The results showed a countrywide decreasing trend in period A and an increasing trend in period B. The increasing trend in period B led to an overall positive trend for period C, except at a few stations. The future trend under SSP2-4.5 revealed a possible continuation of the cyclic pattern of the historical period. In contrast, SSP5-8.5 revealed a dominant increasing trend in rainfall for the period 2030–2089.",

keywords = "Climate change scenarios, Precipitation trends, Sudan, Summer monsoon precipitation",

author = "Monzer Hamadalnel and Zhiwei Zhu and Rui Lu and Shamsuddin Shahid and Ali, \{Md Arfan\} and Ismail Abdalla and Mohammad Elkanzi and Muhammad Bilal and Bleiweiss, \{Max P.\}",

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month = sep,

doi = "10.1007/s41748-021-00236-3",

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AU - Hamadalnel, Monzer

AU - Zhu, Zhiwei

AU - Lu, Rui

AU - Shahid, Shamsuddin

AU - Ali, Md Arfan

AU - Abdalla, Ismail

AU - Elkanzi, Mohammad

AU - Bilal, Muhammad

AU - Bleiweiss, Max P.

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AB - Understanding the ongoing and possible future changes in monsoon rainfall is vital for the sustainable planning and development of Sudanese agriculture. This study uses monthly rainfall recorded at 22 locations for the period 1960–2019 and future projections based on an ensemble of 3 global climate models (GCMs) for the period 2030–2089 to assess historical and future trends of rainfall in Sudan. Sen's slope estimator and Mann–Kendall (MK) test were used to estimate trends and their significance, respectively. The temporal coverage was divided equally into 30-year slices: periods A (1960–1989), B (1990–2019), then both combined into period C (1960–2019) for historical times, and periods D (2030–2059), E (2060–2089), and F (2030–2089) for the future. The future precipitation projection was evaluated from two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). The results showed a countrywide decreasing trend in period A and an increasing trend in period B. The increasing trend in period B led to an overall positive trend for period C, except at a few stations. The future trend under SSP2-4.5 revealed a possible continuation of the cyclic pattern of the historical period. In contrast, SSP5-8.5 revealed a dominant increasing trend in rainfall for the period 2030–2089.

KW - Climate change scenarios

KW - Precipitation trends

KW - Sudan

KW - Summer monsoon precipitation

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Spatio-temporal Investigations of Monsoon Precipitation and Its Historical and Future Trend over Sudan

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

UN SDGs

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