Spatio-temporal estimation of basic and effective reproduction number of COVID-19 and post-lockdown transmissibility in Bangladesh

Al Ekram Elahee Hridoy, Imrul Hasan Tipo, Md Shamsudduha Sami, Md Ripon Babu, Md Sayem Ahmed, Syed Masiur Rahman, Shekh Md Shajid Hasan Tusher, Kazi Jihadur Rashid*, Mohammad Naim

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

2 Scopus citations


The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented public health concern in Bangladesh. This study investigated the role of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 transmission and post-lockdown scenarios of 64 administrative districts and the country as a whole based on the spatiotemporal variations of effective reproduction number (Rt) of COVID-19 incidences. The daily confirmed COVID-19 data of Bangladesh and its administrative districts from March 8, 2020, to March 10, 2021, were used to estimate Rt. This study finds that the maximum value of Rt reached 4.15 (3.43, 4.97, 95% CI) in late March 2020, which remained above 1 afterwards in most of the districts. Containment measures are moderately effective in reducing transmission by 24.03%. The Rt was established below 1 from early December 2020 for overall Bangladesh and a gradual increase of Rt above 1 has been seen from early February 2021. The basic reproduction number (R0) in Bangladesh probably varied around 2.02 (1.33–3.28, 95% CI). This study finds a significant positive correlation (r = 0.75) between population density and COVID-19 incidence and explaining 56% variation in Bangladesh. The findings of this study are expected to support the policymakers to adopt appropriate measures for curbing the COVID-19 transmission effectively.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)23-35
Number of pages13
JournalSpatial Information Research
Issue number1
StatePublished - Feb 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The authors would like to thank all the frontline fighters, doctors, healthcare staffs, police forces fighting this pandemic. We are also thankful to the reviewers for their thoughtful suggestions.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, Korean Spatial Information Society.


  • Bangladesh
  • Basic reproduction number
  • COVID-19
  • Effective reproduction number
  • Epidemiology
  • Non-pharmaceutical Intervention
  • SARS-CoV-2

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Computer Science Applications
  • Computers in Earth Sciences
  • Artificial Intelligence


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