Software development effort prediction: A study on the factors impacting the accuracy of fuzzy logic systems

Reliable effort prediction remains an ongoing challenge to software engineers. Traditional approaches to effort prediction such as the use of models derived from historical data, or the use of expert opinion are plagued with issues pertaining to their effectiveness and robustness. These issues are more pronounced when the effort prediction is used during the early phases of the software development lifecycle. Recent works have demonstrated promising results obtained with the use of fuzzy logic. Fuzzy logic based effort prediction systems can deal better with imprecision, which characterizes the early phases of most software development projects, for example requirements development, whose effort predictors along with their relationships to effort are characterized as being even more imprecise and uncertain than those of later development phases, for example design. Fuzzy logic based prediction systems could produce further better estimates provided that various parameters and factors pertaining to fuzzy logic are carefully set. In this paper, we present an empirical study, which shows that the prediction accuracy of a fuzzy logic based effort prediction system is highly dependent on the system architecture, the corresponding parameters, and the training algorithms.