Shaping a Sustainable Energy Future for Saudi Arabia: Insights from the LEAP Modelling Framework

Electricity demand in Saudi Arabia has not followed a steady growth path. Changes in government policies affecting population and GDP have caused noticeable fluctuations in energy demand. Non-Saudi nationals comprise about 40% of the population. Regulatory changes affecting this group have material impacts on demographics, economic activity, and electricity use. Although demand has generally increased over time, these fluctuations have moderated their overall growth trajectory. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model is used in this study to examine demand and supply across four scenarios: Business as Usual Scenario (BAUS), Medium Growth Scenario (MGS), High Growth Scenario (HGS), and a Demand Management and Energy Efficiency based High Growth Scenario (DMEEHGS). Projections show that by 2040, electricity demand could reach 336.3 TWh under BAUS, 480.2 TWh in MGS, and 631.5 TWh in HGS. In contrast, the DMEEHGS, which emphasizes efficiency measures, would limit demand to 542 TWh. The realization of Vision 2030 goals is particularly aligned with the HGS pathway, though it also leads to the highest environmental burden, with emissions projected at 72 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent - about double the 43 million metric tons estimated for the BAUS case.