Rising Threats of Compound Droughts and Heatwaves in MENA: Implications for Population and Agriculture under Paris Agreement Scenarios

Climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of extreme events and the occurrence of multiple extreme events simultaneously, which can have potentially catastrophic consequences. This study evaluated the effects of climate change on compound events characterized by both droughts and heatwaves (CDH), which can have severe consequences for humans and the environment, especially in arid regions. It evaluated the historical changes and projected shifts in CDH and their impact on population and agriculture in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) area for the Paris Agreement scenarios. The quantile mapping reduces biases in monthly rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, and daily maximum temperature data from eight global climate models that simulated the SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 scenarios (goals of Paris Agreement), using ERA5 data as a reference. The results showed that the CDH duration events are projected to rise by 7 (12) days in SSP1-1.9 (SSP1-2.6) in the Arabian Peninsula and south of the Sahara Desert. The severity and magnitude of CDH events for three-month droughts (SPEI-3) are projected to increase more than other timescale droughts in the future. CDH events for SPEI-3 are expected, by the end of the century, to reach an increase of 0.5 °C and 0.7 °C, compared to 0.3 °C and 0.4 °C, respectively, in the reference period. Increased severity and magnitude of CDH for SPEI-3 would affect 500,000 km² of agricultural land by 2060. The study suggests that even a minor temperature shift could significantly change CDH and severely affect agriculture in the MENA region.