Reliability estimation of buried steel pipes subjected to seismic effect

The estimation of failure probability of a buried steel pipeline in seismic areas involves accounting for the uncertainties associated with the design parameters and the effect of earthquake actions. In this study, a computational framework for implementing an advanced Monte Carlo simulation called Line Sampling (LS) for the reliability estimation of a continuous buried steel pipeline is presented. This is achieved based on the failure modes of longitudinal permanent ground deformation (PGD), transverse PGD, and buoyancy due to liquefaction. Subsequently, the adverse effects of these failure modes are investigated based on the tensile strain failure conditions. However, the efficiency of LS has been demonstrated through numerical studies, and this work aims to employ its numerical capabilities in estimating the small failure probability of buried steel pipeline subjected to seismic effect. To quantify the amount of damage of a continuous buried pipeline due to seismic activity is often challenging because of the lack of information and the randomness associated with design parameters. Therefore, LS is employed for the assessment in order to estimate the probability of failure as a result of seismic actions and randomness associated with the structural parameters. The result shows that the impact of seismic action can be destructive on a continuous buried pipeline if proper analysis is not performed to ascertain a good design. Besides, LS shows its efficiency in estimating the probability of a rare event like an earthquake.