Probabilistic generating capacity adequacy evaluation: Research roadmap

Abstract Evaluation of the adequacy of generating capacity is one of the main planning challenges within the field of power system. With respect to the evaluation of power system reliability, a variety of criteria and techniques have been developed and utilized by numerous utilities over a number of decades. Of these, deterministic and probabilistic techniques are the ones widely used for the evaluation of generating capacity adequacy. Nowadays, modern power systems have emphasized the need for probabilistic techniques to address the challenges that power system undergone and ensure generation adequacy where the applicability of deterministic techniques is no longer valid. The goal of this roadmap research paper is to provide a comprehensive and adequate overview of commonly used probabilistic techniques for generating system adequacy assessment: analytical, non-sequential, and sequential Monte Carlo simulation. The literature review presented in this paper, which includes theories, methodologies, analyses, and discussions, aims to provide useful information to planners or developers who endeavor to assess the reliability of existing power generation systems and plan for future generating capacity additions. Moreover, a valuable background review assembled from different sources is expected to serve students and researchers who are interested in studying in this area.