Prediction of Waste Disposal During Covid-19 Using System Dynamics Modeling

Sound and effective solid waste management practices are important to mitigate health risks and protect the surrounding environment. Proper Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) management practices are especially important during the COVID pandemic. Since the beginning of the COVID pandemic different waste disposal and recycling behaviors are observed in Regina, the capital city of Saskatchewan. It is believed the changes of waste disposal rate at Regina landfill is related to the new hygienic guidelines, more opportunities for work from home, distinct consumer behaviors, and COVID related regulations and recommendations. Waste generation and recycling behaviors are complex and multi-dimensional. The objective of this study is to model waste disposal rate at the City of Regina landfill using a System Dynamics (SD) model. The proposed SD model will help us better manage the City of Regina’s human resources during the pandemic and estimate the demand of additional personal protective equipment required for the waste management workers. In the present work, a total of 7.5 years of waste disposal data is collected, consolidated, and verified. Socio-economical parameters such as GDPs and population at Regina were also collected during the study period from 2013 to 2020. The model is built using stock-flow diagram to illustrate the effects of various inter-related variables on the waste generation behaviors. Construction and demolition (C&D), Grit, Asphalt Shingles Only, Asphalt Shingles Mixed and Treated Biomedical wastes data are used in the SD model. Results show that waste generation has affected by the pandemic and there is a general increase in amount of waste generation. The modeling results are important because it helps us predict the amount of MSW during and after the pandemic.