On the Nominal and Real Currency Devaluation Nexus in European Transition Economies

An important policy issue facing countries is the effectiveness of nominal currency devaluation in boosting exports and improving the trade balance of the devaluing country. It is argued that nominal devaluation would be effective only if it leads to real devaluation. This paper examines the relationship between nominal and real effective exchange rates for 17 European transition economies to determine whether nominal devaluation leads to real devaluation. Employing the ARDL cointegration test with quarterly data over the period 1994-2013, the results show that while nominal devaluation leads to real devaluation in the short run in all but Estonia, this short-run effect lasts into the long run in only Armenia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Georgia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and the Czech Republic. Further analysis on sub-samples corresponding to different exchange rate regimes (pre and post ERM II) suggests that different exchange rate regimes may have different impacts on the link between nominal and real devaluations.