Multi-wing butterfly effects on catastrophic rockslides

The catastrophic rockslide, which frequently triggers numerous severe disasters worldwide, has drawn much attention globally; however, understanding the initiation mechanism of catastrophic rockslides in the absence of typical single triggering factors related to strong seismic activity or torrential precipitation continues to be challenging within the global scientific community. This study aims to determine the mechanism of the three largest catastrophic rockslides in the eastern Tibetan Plateau, Yigong, Xinmo, and Baige, over the past 20 years using field investigation, remote sensing, and runoff analysis. Instead of the conventional driving factors of heavy rainfall and strong earthquakes, the multi-wing butterfly effects (MWBE) of climatic factors and weak earthquakes are for the first time identified as drivers of the catastrophic rockslide disasters. First, strong tectonic uplift, fast fluvial incision, high-density faults, and large regional water confluence formed the slopes in the critical regime, creating the source conditions of rockslide. Second, the MWBE of early dry-heat events and antecedent rainfall, combined with imminent weak earthquakes, initiated rockslide. Third, the delayed amplified runoff moving toward the sliding surface and lowering the strength of the locking-rock segment constituted the fundamental mechanism of the MWBE on rockslide. The catastrophic rockslide was ultimately inferred to be a nonlinear chaotic process; however, prediction and forecasting of rockslide based on the MWBE in the early stages are possible and essential. This finding presents a new perspective concerning forecasting progressive landslides.