Modelling Transport Energy Futures Using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform

Pakistan’s transport sector is a rapidly growing source of final energy demand and greenhouse-gas emissions. This study applies the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) to assess energy-use pathways under three transport policy scenarios from 2020 to 2040. A Reference Scenario (RS) representing current policies, an Electric Vehicle Scenario (EVS) involving progressive substitution of liquid fuels with electricity across road, rail, air transport, and an Efficient Combustion Scenario (ECS) emphasising fuel economy improvements in conventional internal-combustion vehicles. Results indicate that total transport energy demand in the RS rises from 15.8 Mtoe in 2020 to 38.1 Mtoe by 2040, driven by growing fuel use in road freight and passenger transport. The EVS shifts the fuel mix towards electricity, which reaches 9.4 Mtoe in 2040, while gasoline and diesel fall to 11.6 Mtoe and 8.5 Mtoe, respectively. Although the EVS primarily represents fuel substitution, however its total final energy (30.2 Mtoe) is lower than RS and nearly equal to ECS (30.1 Mtoe) as electric drivetrains require less final energy to deliver the same transport output. The ECS shows a total energy demand about 21% lower than the RS, mainly due to improvements in combustion efficiency with gasoline and diesel declining to 14.7 Mtoe and 12.9 Mtoe, respectively. Over the modelling period, cumulative energy consumption is 533.2 Mtoe (RS), 470.4 Mtoe (EVS), and 468.6 Mtoe (ECS). These findings indicate that while the EVS pathway mainly alters the energy mix through electrification, it also realises efficiency-linked demand moderation. The ECS pathway delivers comparable reductions through improved combustion and logistics efficiency. Together, they highlight complementary approaches for reducing fossil fuel dependence and guiding Pakistan’s sustainable transport-energy transition.