Modeling of solar radiation in the time series domain (december 2006)

Time series analysis of relative global solar radiation from four stations in the Kingdom of Jordan, namely Amman, Aqaba, Dier Alla and Irbid have been undertaken. The deterministic component is removed by double differencing. The autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions of the residuals indicate autoregressive (AR) process. The coefficients of the autoregressive process and statistical indicators are estimated using the program PEST. The autoregressive representation of the residual series is justified by analyzing the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions of the resulting white noise. To confirm that the residuals are observed values of independent and identically distributed random variables, Ljung-Box and McLeod-Li statistical test are applied to the residual series.