Modeling of seawater intrusion into Salalah coastal plain aquifer, sultanate of Oman

Excessive groundwater pumping has become a concern in Salalah coastal aquifer in Oman causing seawater intrusion at different farms and abstraction wells near the shoreline. MODFLOW and MT3DMS were calibrated and validated for Salalah coastal aquifer to assess aquifer behavior and seawater intrusion pattern with new input data and fine grid spacing to improve the accuracy of predictions as compared to the previous modeling studies in this region. The study was conducted over an area of 640 km² of Salalah Plain representing around 83% of its total area. Injection of tertiary treated wastewater, rainfall and dams were considered as sources of aquifer recharge while groundwater abstraction occurred for agricultural, domestic, and commercial uses. The calibration and validation of the models were done in steady and transient states using observed groundwater levels from year 2000–2019. The aquifer properties such as hydraulic conductivity, specific yield, and vertical anisotropy were calibrated. MODFLOW results were utilized by MT3DMS to simulate solute transport at transient state. The longitudinal dispersivity and porosity of the aquifer were obtained by calibration and validation of the model. Over the three aquifer layers, the hydraulic conductivity ranges from 10 m/day to 100 m/day, vertical anisotropy is 4 and the specific yield ranges from 0.01 to 0.1. The calibrated values of the longitudinal dispersivity and porosity range from 500 m to 50000 m, and 0.4, respectively. The study indicated a clear impact of seawater intrusion at coastal side of the Salalah plain. The predictive modeling indicated an average of 1.5 m drop in hydraulic head across the whole study area by 2040, while seawater intrusion effect was expected to increase near the coast with potential extension to the central area of the Salalah plain. The validated model can be used as a prediction tool by the decision makers to manage the aquifer considering different scenarios, for integrated water resources management in Salalah city.