Modeling heterotrophic bacteria in plumbing system of drinking water

This study investigated occurrences of heterotrophic (HPC) bacteria and developed predictive models for HPC bacteria in plumbing pipes (PP) and hot water tanks (HWT) of two houses in Dhahran (Saudi Arabia). Heterotrophic bacteria in PP and HWT were observed to be 2.4 to 5.3 and 0.4 to 5.9 times the HPC bacteria in water distribution system (WDS), respectively. Three linear, one nonlinear, and one neural network models were investigated to predict HPC bacteria in PP and HWT. Significant factors for bacteria regrowth in PP and HWT were identified through numerical and graphical techniques. The R2 values of the models varied between 0.57 and 0.96, indicating moderate to excellent predictive ability for HPC bacteria in PP and HWT. The models were found to be statistically significant, which were also validated using additional data. These models can be used to predict HPC bacteria regrowth from WDS to PP and HWT, and could help to predict exposure and risks.