Modeling and forecasting the daily maximum temperature using abductive machine learning

The abductory induction mechanism (AIM) is a modern machine-learning modeling tool that draws from the fields of neural networks, abductive networks, and multiple regression analysis. This paper introduces AIM as a useful weather modeling and forecasting utility and reports on its use with daily maximum temperatures in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia. This approach has the advantages of faster and highly automated model synthesis as well as improved prediction and forecasting accuracies. AIM models developed using daily data for 18 weather parameters over 1 yr that were used to predict the maximum temperature on a given day from other parameters on the same day. Evaluated on data for another full year, these models give 97% yield in the ±3°C error cateogry. -from Authors