Mandarin Exports from Pakistan and its Macroeconomic Determinants

The study was conducted to estimate the macroeconomic determinants of Mandarin (Kinnow) export from Pakistan. In this study, the dynamic panel data of 29 importing countries for the period of 2005 to 2018 was estimated by GMM (Generalized Method of Moment) model. The variables of total exports of Kinnow, domestic prices, population of importing countries, domestic exchange rate, exchange rate of importing countries, domestic production, and distance between trading partners were used to estimate the model. Data were collected from the international trade center, Federal Bureau of Statistics; Islamabad, Pakistan Economic Survey, and International Financial Statistics. Domestic prices of Kinnow were obtained from Pakistan Statistical Yearbook. Exchange rate data was taken from the State Bank of Pakistan. The results of system GMM (Generalized Method of Moment) shows that domestic prices, domestic exchange rate, distance were significant and negatively influenced on both equations; while, the population and exchange rate of importing countries, and domestic production has a positive and significant effect. It is suggested that Pakistan should concentrate more on economies with a large population as a Kinnow commodity importing nation. Stable exchange rates include the involvement of strong government pricing policies to make Mandarin more competitive on world markets. The issue of Pakistan’s low export-to-production ratio needs to be addressed. It is proposed that Pakistan seek to improve the environment of exports with countries close to Pakistan and its neighbors. Policymakers should address the problems of Kinnow export and formulate policies.