Impact of climate change on land use and relationship with land surface temperature: representative case study in Iraq

Iraq is one of the five countries most affected by high temperatures, low precipitation, drought, and desertification hazards. In this research, Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager/Thermal Infrared Sensor (OLI/TIRS) images of Basra, southern Iraq, were used from 1986 to 2021. The relationships between Land Surface Temperature (LST), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, and Normalized Difference Built-up Index were examined to determine the impacts of LST on Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) changes and to estimate future changes under projected temperature and precipitation scenarios for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios from 2010 to 2091. The results indicated significant changes in different LULC categories in Basra from 1986 to 2021. Orchards and swampy areas (especially in Hawiza, Msahab, and Salal marshes) decreased by 45%, mostly converting to built-up or barren areas. The sand area increased by 15.6%. The built-up area increased rapidly from 1217 to 1371 km², a 12.7% increase. Most of the built-up and barren areas in the north, center, and south of Basra province recorded LST values less than 50 °C, especially in gas-flaring areas in petroleum locations. The overall accuracy of LULC was 90% in 1986 and 88% in 2021, while the kappa coefficients were 0.797 in 1986 and 0.848 in 2021. Based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the values of the temperature increase in both scenarios by 1.7 °C in 2050 and 2.2 °C in 2091 in Basra. Due to Basra's significance to Iraq’s economy, society, and politics, the findings of this study will be helpful to city planners and decision-makers in future development of Basra province.