Gas: Forecasting: Russian gas key to 2020 targets

The EUs diminishing gas reserves must be replaced by gas importation. Pipeline imports from Russia, North Africa and at least 200 billion cu/yr of LNG imports could fill the emerging demand-supply gap. Russia plans to increase its gas deliveries to Europe to 200 billion cu/yr by 2030. Building new long-distance gas pipelines, primarily to supply oil-indexed gas from Russia, raises the question as to whether that expensive gas will not again be displaced in the future by cheaper LNG supplies from elsewhere. Meanwhile, the EU thinks the Nabucco pipeline can provide leverage on Russia and Gazprom, but the gas for Nabucco would need to come from former Soviet states in central Asia. The major prospective supplier, Turkmenistan, will remain under Russian patronage as long as Russia uses Gazproms pipeline "diplomacy" to keep Turkmenistan gas flowing via the Brotherhood pipeline to Ukraine and western Europe. For Europe, even the planned increase of LNG imports to 200 billion cu m/yr by 2030 may not be easy to achieve. The worlds LNG receiving capacity is three times greater than LNG supply train capacity. This means Europe may face stiff competition in securing the 200 billion cu m/yr LNG imports required by 2030.