Forests as climate guardians: econometric evidence and policy insights on greenhouse gas mitigation in Malaysia

Forests are vital regulators of greenhouse gases (GHGs), acting as both carbon sinks and sources, yet their national-scale mitigation capacity remains underexplored in Malaysia. This study quantifies the function of Malaysian forests in reducing GHG emissions and evaluates the alignment of national forestry policies with climate mitigation objectives. Using annual data from 1990 to 2020, a Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares model (DOLS)—with reliability evaluations via Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR), and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing—was applied to predict the lasting consequences of forested area, carbon sequestration, and biomass on emissions. Complementary content analysis of 20 national policy documents was conducted to assess institutional support for forest-based mitigation. Econometric results indicate that a 1% increase in forested area, forest CO₂ sinks, and biomass reduces national GHG emissions by 1.81%, 1.49%, and 1.13%, respectively, while expanding economies and rising energy needs significantly elevate emissions. Policy analysis reveals that Malaysia’s frameworks emphasize sustainable forest management, conservation, and biodiversity protection but are constrained by weak enforcement, limited restoration initiatives, and persistent agricultural pressures. Overall, findings demonstrate that Malaysian forests are a critical asset for achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, with measurable mitigation potential already evident. However, this potential can only be sustained through strengthened enforcement, restoration of degraded and peatland ecosystems, and integration of forestry policies with broader energy transition strategies. The study offers robust empirical and policy evidence to inform Malaysia’s sustainable forest management and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-aligned climate commitments.