Forecast and evaluation of asymptomatic COVID-19 patients spreading in China

In this paper, we propose a new SAIR model to depict the transmission dynamics of a novel coronavirus in China. We focus on the ability of asymptomatic COVID-19 patients to transmit and the potential impact of population movements on renewed outbreak transmission. Qualitative analysis of the model shows that when the basic productive number R₀>1, the system will stabilize towards a unique endemic equilibrium and pass through a transcritical bifurcation around its disease-free equilibrium. Furthermore, by constructing an appropriate Lyapunov function, we prove that the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium are globally asymptotically stable under appropriate parameter conditions. Finally, some important results have been verified by numerical simulations.