Experimental-based groundwater salinization from the carbonate aquifer of eastern Saudi Arabia: Insight into machine learning coupled with meta-heuristic algorithms

Groundwater (GW) salinization of coastal aquifers has become a serious problem for attaining sustainable water resource management in Saudi Arabia and other parts of the world. Therefore, it is crucial to assess the extent of this salinization to protect and manage our water resources effectively. This research proposed real fieldwork GW samples at several locations supported with experimental based on chromatography (IC) and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) to analyze several GW physical, chemical, and hydro-geochemical elements. In this study, we model GW salinization with machine learning algorithms such as support vector regression, gaussian process regression, artificial neural networks, and least squares ensemble boosting regression tree. The performance of the standalone models was optimized with metaheuristic optimization-based algorithms such as fuzzy hybridized genetic algorithm (ANFIS-GA) and particle swarm optimization (ANFIS-PSO). The outcomes based on three variable input combinations were validated using several performance indicators and graphical methods. The quantitative analysis indicated that GPR-Combo1(MAE = 0.006 mg/L), Ensm- Combo2 (MAE = 0.025 mg/L), and GPR- Combo3 (MAE = 0.078 mg/L) proved merit among the standalone combinations. Where combo 1, 2, and 3 stand for model combinations derived from feature selection. The cumulative probability function (CPF) demonstrated that heuristic optimization ANFIS-GA (MAE = 0.0025 mg/L, MAPE = 0.19183) and ANFIS-PSO (MAE = 0.0018 mg/L, MAPE = 0.0723) outperformed the standalone error accuracy and served reliable approach. Both the standalone models and heuristic algorithms used for GW salinization modeling have demonstrated promising results in accurately predicting salinity. This approach could aid in effectively managing the GW resources for sustainable development.