Evolving climatic patterns and drought risk in Pakistan’s agro-ecological zones

Climate change is altering global weather systems, posing climatic challenges for Pakistan through shifting precipitation patterns and rising temperatures. This study examines spatiotemporal variations in climate change and drought patterns across Pakistan’s Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) from 1991 to 2023. Using ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis of the global climate (ERA-5) reanalysis data, we analyze precipitation and air temperature anomalies for 2023 to assess climate variability in all AEZs. To capture the spatial trend and severity of drought, we utilize the Precipitation Condition Index (PCI) and Air Temperature Condition Index (ATCI). Additionally, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is applied to evaluate long-term drought trends. Drought intensity has escalated, particularly in Punjab’s agricultural heartlands, AEZ of Northern irrigated plain, threatening crop productivity and food security. From 1991 to 2020, droughts were concentrated in Sindh and Baluchistan’s Dry Plateau, Coastal Zone, and Southern Irrigated Plains. By 2021–2023, droughts expanded from North of Sindh to South of Punjab and Northern irrigated plains. Precipitation deficits were observed in February (46.34 mm to 25.6 mm, a 44.7% drop) and August (81.66 mm to 29.78 mm, a 63.5% decline), related to critical stages of crop development, marking some of the driest conditions recorded since 1991. Conversely, temperature anomalies revealed marked warming trends, with February temperatures rising from 8.11 °C to 10.8 °C (+ 2.7 °C) and March from 13 °C to 13.5 °C (+ 0.5 °C). September saw a rise from 22.6 °C to 23.9 °C (+ 1.3 °C), while increases were noted in October (17.9 °C to 18.4 °C), November (12 °C to 13 °C), and December (7.21 °C to 8.5 °C). This study also found that nearly all AEZs experienced drought in 2000–2005, 2010, 2018 and 2022. While all AEZs showed positive wet trend after 2022, except TM, RP and NDM AEZs are in dryness from 2018 and still continued after 2022. The 2022 floods, compounded by erratic droughts, devastated major crops like wheat, cotton, barley, and rice, exacerbating food insecurity. These findings underscore the urgent need for adaptive measures tailored to regional climatic conditions. Implementing high-precision climate monitoring systems and region-specific drought management strategies are essential to mitigating climate change’s adverse effects on Pakistan’s agricultural sustainability and environmental stability.