Energy conservation and climate change mitigation potential of improving efficiency of room air conditioners in Pakistan

The present study predicts the energy savings, carbon emissions reduction and economic benefits for Pakistan through energy efficiency improvements for room air conditioners under different policy scenarios. The simulation model assumes that room air conditioner stock will increase from 2.7 million for year 2020 to 4.9 million for year 2030. A market average energy efficiency ratio of 2.95 is assumed for year 2020. The impact of improvement in energy efficiency ratio is analyzed for business as usual and four other different scenarios: continuous improvement (5-years and 2-years cycles) and accelerated improvement (5-years and 2-years cycles). The model dynamically incorporates the retiring of old stock and addition of new stock every year. Our results show that annual national electricity consumption for this sector is projected to increase from 7.3 TWh in 2020 to 12.6 TWh in 2030 under the business as usual scenario. The cumulative energy consumption and carbon emissions are 103.5 TWh and 63.1 MtCO ₂. However, implementing energy efficiency policies can result in electricity savings of 11.6 TWh over the ten years or savings nearly 7 million barrels of oil import. Policy recommendations aimed at promoting energy labeling, minimum energy performance standards, regulatory policies, and further country-specific studies for variety of appliances are provided.