Empowering Saudi Arabia's sustainable energy future: A LEAP-Based approach for balancing energy supply and demand

Muhammad Shahid; Amjad Ali; Sikandar Abdul Qadir; Md Tasbirul Islam

doi:10.1016/j.jup.2025.101932

Empowering Saudi Arabia's sustainable energy future: A LEAP-Based approach for balancing energy supply and demand

Muhammad Shahid^*
, Amjad Ali^*
, Sikandar Abdul Qadir
, Md Tasbirul Islam

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

5 Scopus citations

Abstract

Electricity demand in Saudi Arabia is experiencing a volatile upward trend, driven by fluctuations in population and GDP. With non-Saudis making up 40 % of the population, shifts in government policies have directly impacted these numbers, stalling potential growth. Using the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System (LEAP), four future energy supply and demand scenarios are explored: (1) Low Growth (LG), (2) Medium Growth (MG), (3) High Growth (HG), and (4) High Growth with Demand Management and Energy Efficiency (HGDE). By 2035, demand could soar from 328.6 TWh in the LG scenario to 518 TWh in the HG scenario. Emissions in the LG scenario are projected at 62.1 MMtCO₂E, increasing to 103.8 MMtCO₂E in the HG scenario. The implementation of Vision (2030) targets is crucial to supporting this growth.

Original language	English
Article number	101932
Journal	Utilities Policy
Volume	95
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jup.2025.101932
State	Published - Aug 2025

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2025 Elsevier Ltd

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 7 Affordable and Clean Energy

Keywords

Analysis of Vision (2030) Saudia
Energy demand-supply model
Externality costs in energy Modelling
LEAP energy analysis

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Business and International Management
Transportation
Sociology and Political Science
Economics and Econometrics
Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)
General Energy
General Economics, Econometrics and Finance
Law

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10.1016/j.jup.2025.101932

Cite this

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title = "Empowering Saudi Arabia's sustainable energy future: A LEAP-Based approach for balancing energy supply and demand",

abstract = "Electricity demand in Saudi Arabia is experiencing a volatile upward trend, driven by fluctuations in population and GDP. With non-Saudis making up 40 \% of the population, shifts in government policies have directly impacted these numbers, stalling potential growth. Using the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System (LEAP), four future energy supply and demand scenarios are explored: (1) Low Growth (LG), (2) Medium Growth (MG), (3) High Growth (HG), and (4) High Growth with Demand Management and Energy Efficiency (HGDE). By 2035, demand could soar from 328.6 TWh in the LG scenario to 518 TWh in the HG scenario. Emissions in the LG scenario are projected at 62.1 MMtCO2E, increasing to 103.8 MMtCO2E in the HG scenario. The implementation of Vision (2030) targets is crucial to supporting this growth.",

keywords = "Analysis of Vision (2030) Saudia, Energy demand-supply model, Externality costs in energy Modelling, LEAP energy analysis",

author = "Muhammad Shahid and Amjad Ali and Qadir, \{Sikandar Abdul\} and Islam, \{Md Tasbirul\}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2025 Elsevier Ltd",

year = "2025",

month = aug,

doi = "10.1016/j.jup.2025.101932",

language = "English",

volume = "95",

journal = "Utilities Policy",

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T1 - Empowering Saudi Arabia's sustainable energy future

T2 - A LEAP-Based approach for balancing energy supply and demand

AU - Shahid, Muhammad

AU - Ali, Amjad

AU - Qadir, Sikandar Abdul

AU - Islam, Md Tasbirul

PY - 2025/8

Y1 - 2025/8

N2 - Electricity demand in Saudi Arabia is experiencing a volatile upward trend, driven by fluctuations in population and GDP. With non-Saudis making up 40 % of the population, shifts in government policies have directly impacted these numbers, stalling potential growth. Using the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System (LEAP), four future energy supply and demand scenarios are explored: (1) Low Growth (LG), (2) Medium Growth (MG), (3) High Growth (HG), and (4) High Growth with Demand Management and Energy Efficiency (HGDE). By 2035, demand could soar from 328.6 TWh in the LG scenario to 518 TWh in the HG scenario. Emissions in the LG scenario are projected at 62.1 MMtCO2E, increasing to 103.8 MMtCO2E in the HG scenario. The implementation of Vision (2030) targets is crucial to supporting this growth.

AB - Electricity demand in Saudi Arabia is experiencing a volatile upward trend, driven by fluctuations in population and GDP. With non-Saudis making up 40 % of the population, shifts in government policies have directly impacted these numbers, stalling potential growth. Using the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System (LEAP), four future energy supply and demand scenarios are explored: (1) Low Growth (LG), (2) Medium Growth (MG), (3) High Growth (HG), and (4) High Growth with Demand Management and Energy Efficiency (HGDE). By 2035, demand could soar from 328.6 TWh in the LG scenario to 518 TWh in the HG scenario. Emissions in the LG scenario are projected at 62.1 MMtCO2E, increasing to 103.8 MMtCO2E in the HG scenario. The implementation of Vision (2030) targets is crucial to supporting this growth.

KW - Analysis of Vision (2030) Saudia

KW - Energy demand-supply model

KW - Externality costs in energy Modelling

KW - LEAP energy analysis

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105001384434

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DO - 10.1016/j.jup.2025.101932

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:105001384434

SN - 0957-1787

VL - 95

JO - Utilities Policy

JF - Utilities Policy

M1 - 101932

ER -

Empowering Saudi Arabia's sustainable energy future: A LEAP-Based approach for balancing energy supply and demand

Abstract

Bibliographical note

UN SDGs

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Access to Document

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Cite this