Emission reduction energy model of Punjab: A case study

Punjab is the largest province of Pakistan and consumes most of the national energy resources. Electricity is considered as one of the major needs of time. Planning problem in Power sector has given rise to unwanted electricity shortfall, inefficiencies, supply shortage and subsidization leading to circular debt etc. Major generation is from non-renewable energy sources resulting in higher emissions of greenhouse gases. This paper by using Long Range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) System forecasts electricity demand and compares four supply scenarios i.e., Business as Usual Scenario (BAUS), Coal Scenario (CS), Oil Scenario (OS) and Green Punjab Scenario (GPS) from the year 2019 till 2050. The results of the study indicate that electricity demand in 2050 would be 279.7 TWh for Punjab. GHG emission will be 45.5, 58.3 55.0 and 24.1 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in BAUS, CS, OS and GPS respectively. The study suggests that the electricity generation from Green Punjab Scenario is the cheapest in terms of cost and it gives less than 50% of GHG emissions when it is compared with all other scenarios. Therefore, the energy sector of Punjab should be incentivized in electricity generation based on renewable resources in order to increase their contribution in overall energy mix and reduce global emissions. This research will be helpful for developing countries particularly of South Asia.