Electricity Demand Modelling Analysis of Saudi Arabia for Sustainable Development: An Application of LEAP Framework

Electricity demand in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is indicating increasing and decreasing trend. The reason behind this erratic growth is government policies in the country. Basically, about forty percent of Saudi population is consisting on non-Saudi nationals having residency rights in the country. This major chunk of population is directly linked with government policies leading to reduced population in various years. Similarly, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the country is affected and it also affects the energy demand in the country. Though, for a long period of time overall demand shows increasing trend but it limits its increasing capability and hinders economic growth. Long-range energy alternative Planning System (LEAP) is used for demand estimation model in this analysis. Three scenarios are designed to find the clear picture of demand. These are Business as Usual Scenario (BAUS), High Growth Scenario (HGS) and Demand Management and Energy Efficiency based High Growth Scenario (DMEEHGS). Analysis indicates that energy demand will be 336.2 TWh (Tera Watt hours) in 2040 in BAUS whereas this demand will be 631.4 TWh in HGS. By applying demand management and energy efficiency on HGS demand will be 511.4 TWh. In terms of cost about 21.6 Billion Saudi Riyals can be saved by applying demand management and energy efficiency on High Growth Scenario. This clearly indicates that investment on Energy Efficiency will be more beneficial than the investment on catering high peak demand.