Effect of Parameter Uncertainty on Water Distribution Systems Modeling

Muhammad A. Al-Zahrani

doi:10.1061/9780784413609.160

Effect of Parameter Uncertainty on Water Distribution Systems Modeling

Muhammad A. Al-Zahrani^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

Abstract

Analysis of awater distribution system requires input data from many sources. The value of these data are uncertain due to their spatial-temporal variability, measurement error and limited sampling. This uncertainty in estimating model input parameters generates through the governing equations an uncertainty in the predicted model output. Such uncertainty affects notions of risk, reliability and confidence associated with engineering decisions for planning, design and management of water distribution systems. This paper examines the impact of model output uncertainty as affected by uncertain input parameters. The effects of the uncertainties of pipe roughness, junction demand, and water tank's level on the pressure heads and chlorine residual at the junctions are investigated. The methodology, which is applied on real water distribution network, consists of using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to generated input parameters for the hydraulic simulation model considering extended period simulation (EPS). Results indicate that nodal pressure is more sensitive to parameter uncertainty compared to chlorine residual and tank water level has higher influence on pressure compared to the uncertainties of nodal demand and pipe roughness.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk
Subtitle of host publication	Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014
Editors	Jim W. Hall, Siu-Kui Au, Michael Beer
Publisher	American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)
Pages	1596-1604
Number of pages	9
ISBN (Electronic)	9780784413609
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784413609.160
State	Published - 2014

Publication series

Name	Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1061/9780784413609.160

Cite this

Al-Zahrani, M. A. (2014). Effect of Parameter Uncertainty on Water Distribution Systems Modeling. In J. W. Hall, S.-K. Au, & M. Beer (Eds.), Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014 (pp. 1596-1604). (Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014). American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE). https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784413609.160

Al-Zahrani, Muhammad A. / Effect of Parameter Uncertainty on Water Distribution Systems Modeling. Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014. editor / Jim W. Hall ; Siu-Kui Au ; Michael Beer. American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2014. pp. 1596-1604 (Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014).

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title = "Effect of Parameter Uncertainty on Water Distribution Systems Modeling",

abstract = "Analysis of awater distribution system requires input data from many sources. The value of these data are uncertain due to their spatial-temporal variability, measurement error and limited sampling. This uncertainty in estimating model input parameters generates through the governing equations an uncertainty in the predicted model output. Such uncertainty affects notions of risk, reliability and confidence associated with engineering decisions for planning, design and management of water distribution systems. This paper examines the impact of model output uncertainty as affected by uncertain input parameters. The effects of the uncertainties of pipe roughness, junction demand, and water tank's level on the pressure heads and chlorine residual at the junctions are investigated. The methodology, which is applied on real water distribution network, consists of using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to generated input parameters for the hydraulic simulation model considering extended period simulation (EPS). Results indicate that nodal pressure is more sensitive to parameter uncertainty compared to chlorine residual and tank water level has higher influence on pressure compared to the uncertainties of nodal demand and pipe roughness.",

author = "Al-Zahrani, \{Muhammad A.\}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.",

year = "2014",

doi = "10.1061/9780784413609.160",

language = "English",

series = "Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014",

publisher = "American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)",

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Al-Zahrani, MA 2014, Effect of Parameter Uncertainty on Water Distribution Systems Modeling. in JW Hall, S-K Au & M Beer (eds), Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014. Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014, American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), pp. 1596-1604. https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784413609.160

Effect of Parameter Uncertainty on Water Distribution Systems Modeling. / Al-Zahrani, Muhammad A.
Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014. ed. / Jim W. Hall; Siu-Kui Au; Michael Beer. American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2014. p. 1596-1604 (Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

TY - GEN

T1 - Effect of Parameter Uncertainty on Water Distribution Systems Modeling

AU - Al-Zahrani, Muhammad A.

PY - 2014

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N2 - Analysis of awater distribution system requires input data from many sources. The value of these data are uncertain due to their spatial-temporal variability, measurement error and limited sampling. This uncertainty in estimating model input parameters generates through the governing equations an uncertainty in the predicted model output. Such uncertainty affects notions of risk, reliability and confidence associated with engineering decisions for planning, design and management of water distribution systems. This paper examines the impact of model output uncertainty as affected by uncertain input parameters. The effects of the uncertainties of pipe roughness, junction demand, and water tank's level on the pressure heads and chlorine residual at the junctions are investigated. The methodology, which is applied on real water distribution network, consists of using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to generated input parameters for the hydraulic simulation model considering extended period simulation (EPS). Results indicate that nodal pressure is more sensitive to parameter uncertainty compared to chlorine residual and tank water level has higher influence on pressure compared to the uncertainties of nodal demand and pipe roughness.

AB - Analysis of awater distribution system requires input data from many sources. The value of these data are uncertain due to their spatial-temporal variability, measurement error and limited sampling. This uncertainty in estimating model input parameters generates through the governing equations an uncertainty in the predicted model output. Such uncertainty affects notions of risk, reliability and confidence associated with engineering decisions for planning, design and management of water distribution systems. This paper examines the impact of model output uncertainty as affected by uncertain input parameters. The effects of the uncertainties of pipe roughness, junction demand, and water tank's level on the pressure heads and chlorine residual at the junctions are investigated. The methodology, which is applied on real water distribution network, consists of using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to generated input parameters for the hydraulic simulation model considering extended period simulation (EPS). Results indicate that nodal pressure is more sensitive to parameter uncertainty compared to chlorine residual and tank water level has higher influence on pressure compared to the uncertainties of nodal demand and pipe roughness.

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AN - SCOPUS:84933558054

T3 - Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014

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A2 - Beer, Michael

PB - American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)

ER -

Al-Zahrani MA. Effect of Parameter Uncertainty on Water Distribution Systems Modeling. In Hall JW, Au SK, Beer M, editors, Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014. American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE). 2014. p. 1596-1604. (Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014). doi: 10.1061/9780784413609.160

Effect of Parameter Uncertainty on Water Distribution Systems Modeling

Abstract

Publication series

Bibliographical note

ASJC Scopus subject areas

UN SDGs

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