Does global geopolitical risk jeopardize the clean energy transition? New evidence from a global panel

The global transition to renewable energy is vital for promoting sustainable development and achieving net zero emissions by 2050. However, the volatile geopolitical landscape of the past decade has sparked unsettling debates about their impacts on countries' clean energy transition. Yet, these impacts remain understudied, particularly across transition quantiles and momentums. Our research examined the impact of global geopolitical risk on the clean energy transition of 119 countries from 2014 to 2022. We utilized a moment quantile regression model and a comprehensive measure of countries’ energy transition index involving system performance and transition readiness. The results revealed that geopolitical risk adversely affects the overall energy transition index, system performance, and transition readiness of countries across all transition quantiles and momentums. However, we observe that this impact is disproportionally higher for countries in the lower quantile and those in the advancing stage of transition momentum. This finding underscores the vulnerability of countries heavily reliant on traditional fossil fuels and geopolitically sensitive energy sources as they face challenges from limited energy diversification and constrained financial resources. Based on these findings, we recommend the diversification of energy systems and sources towards geopolitically resilient alternatives.