Digitalizing agriculture in Pakistan: enhancing grain supply chains via ICT, environmental literacy, and eco-innovation

Agriculture remains a foundational pillar of Pakistan’s economy but faces increasing pressures from climate change, resource degradation, and production inefficiencies, necessitating a transition toward more sustainable production systems. This study examines how digitalization, behavioral factors, and eco-innovation jointly shape sustainable agricultural transformation in Pakistan, with particular attention to agricultural technology-transfer initiatives conducted under Pakistan–China cooperation. Employing a mixed-methods research design, the study integrates macro-level time-series analysis (2002-2022) using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model with micro-level survey data collected from 366 farmers participating in technology-transfer programs. At the macro-level, the ARDL results reveal a significant long-run association between information and communication technology (ICT) development and national grain production. At the micro-level, structural equation modeling (SEM) indicates that farmers’ green values, perceived behavioral control, green innovative intentions, and energy-use reduction influence the adoption of green production technology (AGPT), primarily through the mediating role of green production willingness. The analysis further shows that eco-innovation strengthens both technology adoption and its linkage with grain supply chain performance (GSP), while the effects of environmental regulation are context-dependent. Additional robustness is provided through machine learning models, including random forest regressor and gradient boosting, which validate predictive relationships under heterogeneous socioeconomic and environmental conditions. As the micro-level evidence is based on a purposive sample of technology-transfer beneficiaries, the findings are interpreted as context-specific rather than nationally generalizable. By explicitly integrating technological acceptance and behavioral mechanisms within a developing-country agricultural setting, this study contributes to the literature on digital agriculture and green innovation and offers targeted, actionable policy insights to enhance climate resilience, food security, and sustainable grain supply chains in Pakistan.