Development and appplication of agent-bsed disease spread simulation model: the case of Suwon, Korea

The spread of diseases such as the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and avian influenza inflicts a significant socioeconomic problem, and highlights the need for a systematic analysis of disease spread patterns. In Korea, however, most domestic research utilize equation based approaches that treat the entire country as a single entity, providing limited applicability. In this study, we propose an agent-based disease diffusion model that reflects not only the nature of the disease, but also the structural and statistical characteristics of each region's population. Based on the 2010 Census data, we developed a synthetic population model of Suwon city in Korea. The spread of disease and various response strategies were analyzed based on the contact network based on the socioeconomic activities of residents. The proposed model is expected to play an important role in formulation of effective disease-related policies, reflecting the mobility and socio-economic structure of today's urban society.