Developing spreadsheet models of Holt-Winter methods and solving with Microsoft Excel solver and differential evaluation technique: An application to tourism sector

Yusuf Ziya Unal; Umar Mustafa Al-Turki; Selim Zaim; Omer Fahrettin Demirel; Rifat Gorener

doi:10.1109/IEOM.2015.7093786

Developing spreadsheet models of Holt-Winter methods and solving with Microsoft Excel solver and differential evaluation technique: An application to tourism sector

Yusuf Ziya Unal
, Umar Mustafa Al-Turki
, Selim Zaim
, Omer Fahrettin Demirel
, Rifat Gorener

Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

3 Scopus citations

Abstract

Forecasting and Time series techniques are frequently used and play extremely important roles in managerial activities and decision-making processes. Holt-Winters (HW) which is one of the most popular forecasting methods is utilized in cases where data show seasonality and/or trend. The method involves the selection of several parameters for optimum prediction results. Heuristics are usually utilized for optimum parameter selection and it appears to be an open field for improvement. In this study 'Spreadsheet modeling' of HW method is improved by minimizing the mean squared error (i.e. prediction error). Since the forecast error is nonlinear function; Holt-Winters parameter optimization in this study is achieved by 'Excel Nonlinear Solver' and 'Differential Evolution Search' techniques. To increase the usability of the spreadsheet modeling advance macro programming techniques are incorporated with the developed models in Microsoft Excel.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	IEOM 2015 - 5th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management, Proceeding
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
ISBN (Electronic)	9781479960651
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1109/IEOM.2015.7093786
State	Published - 23 Apr 2015

Publication series

Name	IEOM 2015 - 5th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management, Proceeding

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2015 IEEE.

Keywords

Forecasting
Heuristic Searches
Holt-Winters
Macro Programming
Microsoft Excel
Non-linear Programming
Spreadsheet Modeling

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering
Management Science and Operations Research

Access to Document

10.1109/IEOM.2015.7093786

Cite this

Unal, Y. Z., Al-Turki, U. M., Zaim, S., Demirel, O. F., & Gorener, R. (2015). Developing spreadsheet models of Holt-Winter methods and solving with Microsoft Excel solver and differential evaluation technique: An application to tourism sector. In IEOM 2015 - 5th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management, Proceeding Article 7093786 (IEOM 2015 - 5th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management, Proceeding). Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.. https://doi.org/10.1109/IEOM.2015.7093786

Unal, Yusuf Ziya ; Al-Turki, Umar Mustafa ; Zaim, Selim et al. / Developing spreadsheet models of Holt-Winter methods and solving with Microsoft Excel solver and differential evaluation technique : An application to tourism sector. IEOM 2015 - 5th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management, Proceeding. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2015. (IEOM 2015 - 5th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management, Proceeding).

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title = "Developing spreadsheet models of Holt-Winter methods and solving with Microsoft Excel solver and differential evaluation technique: An application to tourism sector",

abstract = "Forecasting and Time series techniques are frequently used and play extremely important roles in managerial activities and decision-making processes. Holt-Winters (HW) which is one of the most popular forecasting methods is utilized in cases where data show seasonality and/or trend. The method involves the selection of several parameters for optimum prediction results. Heuristics are usually utilized for optimum parameter selection and it appears to be an open field for improvement. In this study 'Spreadsheet modeling' of HW method is improved by minimizing the mean squared error (i.e. prediction error). Since the forecast error is nonlinear function; Holt-Winters parameter optimization in this study is achieved by 'Excel Nonlinear Solver' and 'Differential Evolution Search' techniques. To increase the usability of the spreadsheet modeling advance macro programming techniques are incorporated with the developed models in Microsoft Excel.",

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language = "English",

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Unal, YZ, Al-Turki, UM, Zaim, S, Demirel, OF & Gorener, R 2015, Developing spreadsheet models of Holt-Winter methods and solving with Microsoft Excel solver and differential evaluation technique: An application to tourism sector. in IEOM 2015 - 5th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management, Proceeding., 7093786, IEOM 2015 - 5th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management, Proceeding, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc. https://doi.org/10.1109/IEOM.2015.7093786

Developing spreadsheet models of Holt-Winter methods and solving with Microsoft Excel solver and differential evaluation technique: An application to tourism sector. / Unal, Yusuf Ziya; Al-Turki, Umar Mustafa; Zaim, Selim et al.
IEOM 2015 - 5th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management, Proceeding. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2015. 7093786 (IEOM 2015 - 5th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management, Proceeding).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

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AU - Unal, Yusuf Ziya

AU - Al-Turki, Umar Mustafa

AU - Zaim, Selim

AU - Demirel, Omer Fahrettin

AU - Gorener, Rifat

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AB - Forecasting and Time series techniques are frequently used and play extremely important roles in managerial activities and decision-making processes. Holt-Winters (HW) which is one of the most popular forecasting methods is utilized in cases where data show seasonality and/or trend. The method involves the selection of several parameters for optimum prediction results. Heuristics are usually utilized for optimum parameter selection and it appears to be an open field for improvement. In this study 'Spreadsheet modeling' of HW method is improved by minimizing the mean squared error (i.e. prediction error). Since the forecast error is nonlinear function; Holt-Winters parameter optimization in this study is achieved by 'Excel Nonlinear Solver' and 'Differential Evolution Search' techniques. To increase the usability of the spreadsheet modeling advance macro programming techniques are incorporated with the developed models in Microsoft Excel.

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Unal YZ, Al-Turki UM, Zaim S, Demirel OF, Gorener R. Developing spreadsheet models of Holt-Winter methods and solving with Microsoft Excel solver and differential evaluation technique: An application to tourism sector. In IEOM 2015 - 5th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management, Proceeding. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc. 2015. 7093786. (IEOM 2015 - 5th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management, Proceeding). doi: 10.1109/IEOM.2015.7093786

Developing spreadsheet models of Holt-Winter methods and solving with Microsoft Excel solver and differential evaluation technique: An application to tourism sector

Abstract

Publication series

Bibliographical note

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Access to Document

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Cite this