Current and projected impacts of climate change on Arabian Gulf sea level rise

Sea level rise (SLR), a critical consequence of climate change, poses a significant threat to the Iraqi coast, a region of immense economic and strategic importance. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the historical and projected impacts of SLR on the Faw district in southern Iraq. Analyzed Land Use and Land Cover change (LULC) for 1985, 2001, and 2022, and evaluated inundation risk under 1, 2, and 3-meter SLR scenarios. Furthermore, quantified historical SLR in the Arabian Gulf using satellite altimetry data (TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, Jason-2, Jason-3, and Sentinel-6 MF) from 1992 to 2023 and projected future SLR for 2040, 2060, 2080, and 2100 using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5. The findings reveal significant LULC transformations, including a reduction in vegetation and palm groves from 87 km2 in 1985 to 70 km2 in 2022, alongside dynamic changes in Faw’s total land area due to accretion and erosion. The SLR inundation scenarios indicate that critical areas, including the Shaat al-Arab, Faw city, and surrounding villages, are at high risk of submersion, particularly under the 3-meter scenario. Future projections under the RCP8.5 scenario estimate substantial SLR in the northern Arabian Gulf, with increases of 0.145–0.15 m by 2040, 0.231–0.262 m by 2060, 0.397–0.411 m by 2080, and reaching 0.56–0.93 m by 2100. Given the profound economic and strategic value of the Iraqi coast, these findings underscore the urgent need for proactive, long-term planning. The development and implementation of robust adaptation strategies that leverage modern surveillance and decision-making technologies ensure the sustainable development and resilience of this vital coastal region.