Comparison of different optimized machine learning algorithms for daily river flow forecasting

  • Pijush Samui
  • , Sefa Nur Yesilyurt*
  • , Huseyin Yildirim Dalkilic
  • , Zaher Mundher Yaseen
  • , Sanjiban Sekhar Roy
  • , Sanjay Kumar
  • *Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

16 Scopus citations

Abstract

River flow modeling is essential for critical aspects such as effective water management and structure planning, together with flood and drought analysis. There has been a growing interest in modeling hydrological systems via machine learning (ML) models. Various optimization techniques are utilized to develop the applications of ML-based hydrological models. The ultimate aim of this research is to establish high performance forecasting model. Therefore, this study conducts river flow modeling by using the daily data attained from a gauge station situated in the Euphrates Basin. For this purpose, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model was hybridized with five different optimization algorithms i.e., Artificial Bee Colony (ABC), Teaching-Learning Based Optimization (TLBO), Ant Colony Optimization (ACO), Ant-Lion Optimization (ALO), and Imperialist Competitive Algorithm (ICA). In determining the inputs used to create the models, the distribution graph and correlation of the data with the previous period data were examined. The results were evaluated with eleven different statistical parameters and an error matrix. Examining the obtained results, the study revealed all models present high performance. When the results were reviewed in general, it was seen that all determination coefficient (R2) and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE) values were higher than 0.962, and other parameters were very close to the optimum. By comparing all the developed hybrid models, ANN-ALO model reported the highest performance for river flow forecasting.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)533-548
Number of pages16
JournalEarth Science Informatics
Volume16
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 2023

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.

Keywords

  • Ant Colony Optimization
  • Ant-Lion Optimization
  • Artificial Bee Colony
  • Artificial Neural Network
  • Imperialist Competitive Algorithm
  • Teaching-Learning Based Optimization

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General Earth and Planetary Sciences

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