Climatic and tectono-geomorphological controls on karst spring dynamics: Case study of the El Menzel Causse, Middle Atlas (Morocco)

Karst aquifers in semi-arid regions are vital yet exceptionally vulnerable lifelines. This study investigates how tectonic, geomorphological, and climatic factors control the dynamics of karst springs in the El Menzel Causse (Middle Atlas, Morocco). Using an integrated approach that combines field investigations, remote sensing, and quantitative hydro-climatic analysis, we identify the mechanisms driving the system's severe decline. Results indicated that the structural architecture of the major fault systems in the North Middle Atlas Fault (NMAF) and the Median Middle Atlas Fault (MMAF), governs the spatial distribution of more than 50 springs, which occur preferentially within highly permeable fault damage zones. However, the aquifer is under severe climatic stress, evidenced by a statistically significant decline in precipitation and an increased frequency of droughts. The system's response appeared dramatic: only five springs remained active in 2024, with discharge reductions exceeding 80 % compared to historical records. Anthropogenic pressures including groundwater overextraction and wastewater contamination critically amplify this crisis. In conclusion, this research presents El Menzel as a “sentinel system” whose collapse serves as a warning for other karst regions worldwide, highlighting the urgent need for science-informed, adaptive water management strategies to prevent irreversible resource depletion.