Can change prediction help prioritise redesign work in future engineering systems?

As a result of easier and faster iterations during the design process, the management of design changes, their propagation and their impacts are likely to become increasingly important in future. This paper uses a simulation model to investigate whether, and to what degree, a better understanding of how change propagates could help mitigate some of the risks to project performance that will arise from the increased dynamic complexity in future design environments. We conclude that accurate prediction of change propagation only a few steps ahead could significantly reduce unnecessary rework.