Assessing the sustainability of threadfin bream fishery along South-eastern coast of the Arabian Sea: A comprehensive analysis of climate change impact and fishing frontiers

The study aimed to assess the cumulative impact of climate change and sustainable fishing levels on the long-term sustainability of threadfin breams, a demersal species inhabiting along south-eastern coast of the Arabian Sea (SEAS). We utilized the dataset derived from the commercial fisheries in the SEAS region and addressed the influence of dynamics in fishing and environmental factors. The threadfin breams stock status was estimated by analyzing the fluctuations in Catch Per Unit Effort and by employing methods, viz. the Monte Carlo Catch- Maximum Sustainable Yield and Bayesian Schaefer Model. The investigation found that the catch rate of threadfin breams declined as fishing intensity increased in terms of effectiveness of advanced fishing methods. This empirical inquiry leveraged the Generalized Additive Model to assess the impact of environmental parameters on the fish stock. The analysis unveils a notable positive influence on this fish group, signifying a substantial response to increased precipitation. In contrast, deviations in Sea Surface Temperature, Sea Surface Salinity, ocean isothermal layer depth, and surface currents revealed adverse effects surpassing the optimal threshold. The targeted stock of threadfin breams exhibits a medium level of resilience, as indicated by the existing data, the investigation concludes that optimizing fishing practices could aid in replenishing the stock, fostering future sustainability. This conclusion holds true even in the face of potential negative influences from environmental parameters to a certain extent. Overall, the study provides important insights into the impact of climate change and sustainable fishing practices on the sustainability of a demersal resource in the SEAS and emphasizes the innovative ways to manage fishery resources in a manner that is ecologically sustainable and yet economically viable and socially acceptable.