Application of interactive threat matrix induced system dynamics model to determine risk probability and resilient policy measures for CO₂ pipelines

In the sphere of decarbonization, a comprehensive CO₂ (Carbon dioxide) pipeline risk analysis framework is crucial for resilient long-term operations. Canadian Standards Association (CSA) updated regulations Z662:23 requires operators and regulatory bodies to develop quantitative risk assessment methodologies with probability and consequence analysis. Thus, this study is aimed at determining risk probability of CO₂ pipelines across Canada, while developing a simulation tool for consecutive policy analysis. The process involves integration of threat matrix from real gas pipeline incident dataset, long-short term memory (LSTM) model and system dynamics (SD) simulation. Baseline simulation represents a risk probability value of 5.89 with a synthetic integrity of 55.1 % by 2055. Sensitivity analysis, calibration, scenario analysis and structural validity have been performed to check the numerical boundary adequacy, accuracy and variability of the built SD model. Among two policies simulated, Policy 2 has been found to be more resilient, as it restrained the risk probability to a value of 2.54 with an increased 77.4 % pipeline integrity. The developed methodology is a simplified risk probability analysis tool for CO₂ pipelines, with extensible features to incorporate further consequences and economic analysis.