Application of CSM-CANEGRO Model for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation for Sugarcane in Semi-arid Environment of Southern Punjab, Pakistan

Climate change is a severe threat for productivity of sugarcane crop. Crop models have potential to quantify the climate change impacts, and management practices effects on development and productivity of sugarcane crop. These models provide simulations as a result of interaction between genotype, management, and environment. The current study was conducted with the objectives to (1) calibration, evaluation and application of CSM-CANEGRO-Sugarcane model (2) climate change assessment and make adaptation strategies for industrial (spring and autumn crops) and non-industrial (summer crop) sugarcane. Two field experiments regarding industrial sugarcane were carried out at Multan during 2013–2014 and 2014–2015 and two field experiments regarding ponda chewing sugarcane (non-industrial, thick, soft and juicier sugarcane) at Vehari during 2017 and 2018. Calibration and evaluation of CSM-CANEGRO-Sugarcane model showed that all model statistical parameters were obtained under acceptable range. Model sensitivity was also evaluated against Carbon, Temperature and Water analysis for both sites. Results revealed that average temperature is increased almost 0.94 °C during baseline weather data (1980–2018), while according to different climate projections by Global Climate Models (GCMs), average temperature 3–5 °C can be increase during mid-century. So, without adaptation strategies, fresh cane yield will be decreased ranging from 15.31 to 22.57% at different GCMs during mid-century (2039–2069). Adaptation strategies; like 18–25 days earlier planting, increasing 15% N application quantity and increasing frequency of irrigation and growing heat tolerant and more growing degree days requiring varieties can compensate the negative impact of climate change in future scenario.