An Integrated Approach to Analysing the Urban Growth Patterns: The Case of Sialkot, Punjab, Pakistan

Urban growth is a worldwide phenomenon, and urbanisation is increasing rapidly, particularly in developing countries. The high pace of unmanaged urbanisation and consequent low-density urban sprawl poses severe challenges to most big cities globally. Such growth features are primarily contributing to haphazard changes in land uses, leading to agricultural loss. This research adopts an integrated approach to analysing the urban growth patterns in Sialkot, Pakistan. It utilises Landsat satellite data and examines the change of land use and land cover (LULC) over 28 years (1990 - 2018). It estimates the agricultural area converted into built-up area during this time frame. Moreover, a spatiotemporal saturation analysis is also performed to analyse the nature of urban growth further. This change analysis is then compared to urban growth strategies introduced under previous urban master plans. The results indicate that the built-up area of Sialkot city has increased from 2,786.49 ha (28.89%) to 7,191.63 ha (74.56%) during the years 1990 - 2018. In comparison, the agriculture area has reduced from 69.5% to 24.84%. Similarly, the saturation value has decreased from 0.85 to 0.75, depicting the city is moving towards urban sprawl. The policy review and interview results indicate a lack of focus toward implementation of urban master plans, which has contributed to ribbon development in Sialkot. The study provides recommendations for concerned urban planning authorities to control urban sprawl in Sialkot.