Accelerating electric mobility in Saudi Arabia: A distance-metric framework for policy gap analysis and reform

Saudi Arabia is advancing electric mobility under Vision 2030, but electric vehicles (EVs) currently account for only about 1% of new car sales, indicating a gap between strategic ambition and policy implementation. This study develops a transparent distance-metric framework to diagnose Saudi Arabia's EV policy alignment across five pillars: adoption targets, charging infrastructure, consumer incentives, domestic manufacturing, and regulatory standards. Policy performance is scored on a 0–1 scale using an evidence-to-score rubric, with score traceability documented through explicit policy evidence and score sensitivity examined using Monte Carlo scenario-based perturbation analysis. Two complementary distance measures are applied: Hamming Distance to capture structural non-alignment and the L1 Norm to measure the magnitude of policy shortfalls. Results show a Hamming Distance of 5/5, indicating that no pillar fully reaches the benchmark, and an L1 Norm of 3.4/5, equivalent to a normalized cumulative gap of 0.68. The Composite Policy Alignment Index (CPAI), formulated as a transparent integration of the normalized Hamming and L1 distances, yields a score of 0.84, confirming substantial policy misalignment. Monte Carlo scenario-based sensitivity analysis shows that CPAI remains within approximately 0.80–0.88 under one-step scoring uncertainty, while α-sensitivity confirms that the main conclusion remains stable across alternative weighting assumptions. Comparison with alternative index formulations shows that CPAI provides a stricter diagnostic interpretation by combining cumulative shortfall with structural non-alignment. The findings suggest that Saudi Arabia's largest policy gaps are concentrated in charging infrastructure, consumer incentives, and regulatory standards, while domestic manufacturing shows relative progress. The framework provides diagnostic guidance for sequencing EV policy reforms while recognizing that implementation requires further economic, institutional, and stakeholder-based assessment.