A strategic analysis of geothermal energy for sustainable energy transition: Case study from Indonesia

Indonesia holds an estimated ∼ 40 % of global geothermal resources, yet less than 8 % of this theoretical potential is operating. As the country seeks reliable, low‑carbon power to meet ambitious renewable energy targets, geothermal can provide dispatchable generation that complements variable solar and wind. This review offers an integrated strategic assessment of Indonesia's geothermal sector by combining a literature‑grounded, expert‑elicited SWOT analysis with a project‑level case study of the 70 MW Dieng development in Central Java. The expert scoring highlights substantial strengths (large, high‑enthalpy resource base; proven operating experience; grid‑supporting attributes) alongside material weaknesses (exploration risk and high upfront capital, protracted permitting, social‑license frictions). Opportunities include national decarbonization commitments, access to climate finance, industrial heat applications, and grid expansion to resource‑rich regions, while threats arise from tariff uncertainty, competing costs of other renewables and storage, and localized environmental and land‑use pressures. Taken together, the weighted SWOT positions the sector in a Weaknesses–Threats (WT) posture, implying a defensive–stabilizing strategy that addresses risk and bankability before scaling. Actionable priorities include: (i) risk‑sharing instruments for exploration (guarantees, drilling insurance, public co‑funding); (ii) transparent, bankable PPA/tariff frameworks aligned with resource and drilling risk; (iii) coordinated transmission planning to connect priority prospects; (iv) standardized community‑benefit and environmental management packages to strengthen social acceptance; and (v) modular technology choices (flash/binary hybrids) matched to resource grade. The Dieng case ground‑truths these recommendations, illustrating how permitting, land access, and community engagement materially shape timelines and cost of capital. The synthesis provides a portable strategy set for policymakers, utilities, and developers to de‑risk projects and accelerate geothermal deployment as part of Indonesia's sustainable energy transition.