Abstract
In this study, we estimate a multi-country Threshold-Augmented Global Vector Autoregressive (TGVAR) model to analyze the response of real GDP of emerging economies (Brazil, India, China, and South Africa) with reference to selected advanced economies (US, UK, & Germany) to the COVID-19 shock. The result of the counterfactual analysis beyond the 2019Q4 indicates that the impact of COVID-19 shock on real GDP is pervasive and more prevalent in the developed than the emerging economies. Our model forecasts real GDP growth of emerging countries more precisely, but we attribute the shortfalls in the projections for advanced economies to the efficacy of fiscal and unconventional monetary policies to speed up the recovery in these countries.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 93-101 |
| Number of pages | 9 |
| Journal | Emerging Markets Finance and Trade |
| Volume | 58 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - 2022 |
Bibliographical note
Publisher Copyright:© 2021 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.
UN SDGs
This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
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SDG 3 Good Health and Well-being -
SDG 17 Partnerships for the Goals
Keywords
- C33
- COVID-19
- emerging economies
- I18
- O47
- O57
- Real GDP
- threshold-augmented GVAR
- US
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Finance
- General Economics, Econometrics and Finance
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