A LEAP-Based Framework for Achieving Energy Sustainability in Saudi Arabia

The aim of this study is to evaluate long-term pathways for Saudi Arabia’s electricity sector using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system. The method applies a LEAP-based accounting framework to construct and compare three scenarios named as Business-as-Usual Scenario (BAUS), High Growth Scenario (HGS), and Green Future Scenario (GFS), quantifying electricity demand, supply mix, and supply-side CO₂-equivalent emissions, with renewables deployment in HGS/GFS aligned with Vision-2030 targets. The results of this study show that electricity demand in 2040 reaches 403.3 Tera Watt hours (TWh) in BAUS, 583.3 TWh in HGS, 524.9 TWh in GFS, and supply-side emissions are 74.6 Million Metric Tons CO₂ Equivalent (MMtCO₂E) for BAUS, 116.9 and 102.9 MMtCO₂E for HGS, and GFS, respectively. The originality of this work is an integrated, Saudi-specific assessment that jointly reports demand, supply, and emissions within a single LEAP framework and clarifies policy-relevant trade-offs between demand growth, renewable deployment, and decarbonization.